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Construction Recession (EU)
Severe EU-wide construction slowdown. Used market values drop sharply, demand for rentals collapses.
Value -22%Hours -30%Scope: Europe
Modeled on: 2023 EU construction Q1 contraction (Eurostat) + ifo crisis-level Bauwirtschaft index 2026
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Interest Rate Shock (+200 bps)
Central banks tighten 200bps. Cost of capital rises, secondary market liquidity dries up.
Value -8%Hours -5%Maint +5%
Modeled on: Modeled on ECB tightening cycle 2022-2024
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Sweden — Boverket Downside
Sweden-specific severe scenario per Boverket downside path. Nordics rental demand drops, lift segment hurt.
Value -18%Hours -25%Scope: SE
Modeled on: Boverket Q1 2026 downside projection — housing completions −12%
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North America — AED Bullish
N.Am. infrastructure spending peaks per AED outlook. Equipment values rise, hours up.
Value +10%Hours +12%Scope: North America
Modeled on: AED Annual Industry Outlook 2026 — fleet capex +5%, rental revenue +8%